Well, I am just writing a section of my new book on "population bottlenecks" and how your ancestors and mine are survivors ...
So, I am certainly not going to argue with you that another "bottleneck" is impossible or even unlikely. I also happen to be reading a wonderful book called "Fluke" that makes this point ...
So, it is quite possible that such events can happen again.
For a "live in the moment" Zen fellow, however, you are planning now for a disaster that perhaps you should not worry about quite that much. It is a little bit like worrying about being in a car or plane crash (they will happen sometimes), so avoiding to travel and visit family and great foreign places. It might keep you safe, or you might get food poisoning from your naturally fertilized burdock or fall into your newly dug well.
The book "Fluke" also makes the point that it is very difficult or impossible to make long term societal projections. However, it also makes the point that sand piles will naturally experience collapse from time to time. So, society is bound to as well.
I am a "Luddite Lite," believing that we need to pull back from our present lifestyle and over indulgence in technology. But we also need technology to avoid many of the potential horrors you describe.
I rather doubt that "peak oil" is itself a worry. I believe that, as soon as the oil begins to reach peak, the alternatives (solar, nuclear, hydrogen and electric vehicles, etc. etc.) will suddenly become economically scalable. The technologies already exist. It is just that we don't have the political leadership and pocket books to allow us to dive in deep enough. We won't until we really can't drill much more. It is shameful that that is so, but I don't believe that "peak oil" itself will be more than a blip.
Gassho, J
stlah
It is theorized that, around 74,000 years ago, the Toba supervolvano’s eruption near today’s Indonesia may have dramatically cooled the Earth and led to famine, with all Homo sapiens on the globe reduced to a mere 1,000 or 10,000 individuals. If so, all modern humans, including you, would be heir to those lucky survivors. Even in more recent times, from pre-history to eras of known history, plagues, famines, natural disasters and wars shaved the human population from Asia to Africa to Australia, Europe to the Americas. As but one instance, the Black Death of the 14th century is estimated to have killed 30 to 60% of the European population. Tens of millions more died in Asia and parts of Africa. The population of China alone may have dropped from 125 million to 90 million in but a few years, and likewise for the loss of a third of people in North Africa and the Middle East.
History can be terrible and tragic.
Nonetheless, not one of your ancestors, not in any epoch or generation, was ever the victim of famine or flood, war or earthquake, plague or pestilence … not one, not ever … before having lived long enough to sire the next generation of your line. You come from an amazingly long lineage of lucky leftovers.
History can be terrible and tragic.
Nonetheless, not one of your ancestors, not in any epoch or generation, was ever the victim of famine or flood, war or earthquake, plague or pestilence … not one, not ever … before having lived long enough to sire the next generation of your line. You come from an amazingly long lineage of lucky leftovers.
When we try to assert our control over complex systems, much can go wrong. China, under Mao Zedong, found this out the hard way. Mao didn’t understand that nature’s ecology is complex— untamable and sensitive to changes to even a few species. During the Four Pests campaign, China’s dictator ordered citizens to kill rats, flies, mosquitoes, and sparrows. He hoped it would help eradicate human disease. But when the sparrows were wiped out, locusts no longer faced a natural predator. It contributed to unexpected ecological havoc, as the locusts took over. The ensuing famine left as many as 55 million people dead.[LINK]
For a "live in the moment" Zen fellow, however, you are planning now for a disaster that perhaps you should not worry about quite that much. It is a little bit like worrying about being in a car or plane crash (they will happen sometimes), so avoiding to travel and visit family and great foreign places. It might keep you safe, or you might get food poisoning from your naturally fertilized burdock or fall into your newly dug well.
The book "Fluke" also makes the point that it is very difficult or impossible to make long term societal projections. However, it also makes the point that sand piles will naturally experience collapse from time to time. So, society is bound to as well.
Why do such unpredictable cascades happen? The answer may lie with a phenomenon known as self-organized criticality. The name
was coined in 1987 by Per Bak, a Danish physicist who showed how his concept applied to grains of sand in a sandpile. The grains slowly
build up, one by one, in a stable pattern. Everything seems perfectly ordered, stable, and predictable as the pile grows steadily. That is,
until the sandpile hits a critical state and one additional grain of sand triggers an enormous avalanche. In such a sandpile model, you
would expect to see periods of stability followed by catastrophic cascades that occur with no warning. Because a single grain can
create that avalanche, small changes can have a large, destabilizing impact on the system. As Victor Hugo wrote in Les Misérables, “How
do we know that the creations of worlds are not determined by falling grains of sand?” Per Bak’s answer was simple: we do know.
Worlds can be determined not just by falling grains of sand, but by a single grain.
...
Modern society is now so intertwined that ordinary individuals, not just kings and popes and generals, can redirect the entire
human swarm. Consider this question: Who has been the most influential person of the twenty-first century so far? Some might say
Xi Jinping, or Vladimir Putin, or Donald Trump. I disagree. My nomination would be an unnamed person. The COVID-19 pandemic
likely started with a single person, in a single event, in Wuhan, China. The lives of literally billions of people were drastically
changed, for years, by one virus infecting one individual. Never in human history have the daily lives of so many people been so
drastically affected, for so long, by one small, contingent event. Welcome to the swarm.
was coined in 1987 by Per Bak, a Danish physicist who showed how his concept applied to grains of sand in a sandpile. The grains slowly
build up, one by one, in a stable pattern. Everything seems perfectly ordered, stable, and predictable as the pile grows steadily. That is,
until the sandpile hits a critical state and one additional grain of sand triggers an enormous avalanche. In such a sandpile model, you
would expect to see periods of stability followed by catastrophic cascades that occur with no warning. Because a single grain can
create that avalanche, small changes can have a large, destabilizing impact on the system. As Victor Hugo wrote in Les Misérables, “How
do we know that the creations of worlds are not determined by falling grains of sand?” Per Bak’s answer was simple: we do know.
Worlds can be determined not just by falling grains of sand, but by a single grain.
...
Modern society is now so intertwined that ordinary individuals, not just kings and popes and generals, can redirect the entire
human swarm. Consider this question: Who has been the most influential person of the twenty-first century so far? Some might say
Xi Jinping, or Vladimir Putin, or Donald Trump. I disagree. My nomination would be an unnamed person. The COVID-19 pandemic
likely started with a single person, in a single event, in Wuhan, China. The lives of literally billions of people were drastically
changed, for years, by one virus infecting one individual. Never in human history have the daily lives of so many people been so
drastically affected, for so long, by one small, contingent event. Welcome to the swarm.
I rather doubt that "peak oil" is itself a worry. I believe that, as soon as the oil begins to reach peak, the alternatives (solar, nuclear, hydrogen and electric vehicles, etc. etc.) will suddenly become economically scalable. The technologies already exist. It is just that we don't have the political leadership and pocket books to allow us to dive in deep enough. We won't until we really can't drill much more. It is shameful that that is so, but I don't believe that "peak oil" itself will be more than a blip.
Gassho, J
stlah
Comment